Winter Weather Awareness Week: Climatology

Every year, winter claims dozens of lives and millions of dollars in damage. Cold weather exposure and automobile accidents are the main causes of winter weather related deaths in Montana. Livestock injuries and deaths can also be quite common during the more hazardous events. The following are some of the causes of both direct and indirect deaths and injuries in Montana as well as causes of damage:

• Extreme wind chill or extreme cold (within a home and outside)
• Vehicle accidents
• Avalanches
• Leaving a shelter such as a home or vehicle
• Carbon monoxide poisoning from an incorrectly set up generator or vehicle exhaust obstructed by snow
• Collapse of structures from heavy snow loading
• Fallen tree branches due to heavy snow

Below is a look at the number of winter storms, blizzards and ice storms that have affected Montana since the 1999-2000 winter season:

Year	Winter Storm	Blizzard	Ice Storm	Fatalities
1999-00	30	1	0	1
2000-01	27	3	2	1
2001-02	30	5	0	0
2002-03	24	1	0	0
2003-04	25	3	0	1
2004-05	23	2	1	0
2005-06	27	4	1	2
2006-07	31	2	0	0
2007-08	29	3	0	2
2008-09	25	7	2	4
2009-10	24	2	2	1
Totals	295	33	8	12
Yearly Average	26.8	3.0	0.7	1.1

Record Heat Returns

By tomorrow afternoon you will be asking for that cooler weather again. We are looking at potential record highs tomorrow afternoon for many local cities. I have listed a few cities for you for your reference, along with a list of tomorrow's records.

Bozeman MSU Forecast High: 90° Record High: 93 in 2003
Belgrade Forecast High: 98° Record High: 96 in 2003
Butte Forecast High: 90° Record High: 91 in 1981

08/26/2010

  HI MAX |    LO MAX  |    HI MIN  |    LO MIN  |    HI PCPN  |    HI SNOW  |  STATION

96   1894    51   1928    65   1984    35   1892   0.55   1892    0.0   2010   Great Falls Intl Airport  
95   2003    54   1895    65   1913    35   1992   0.34   1954      T   1989   Helena Airport  
98   2003    52   1928    65   1958    35   1914   0.71   1954      T   1954   Havre City/County Airport  
96   2003    61   1993    67   1970    29   1992   0.74   1977    0.0   1999   Belgrade (Bozeman) Airport  
91   2003    42   1910    63   1984    31   1910   0.68   1954    0.0   2007   Cut Bank Municipal Airport  
99   1926    52   1941    60   1958    30   1896   0.70   1941    0.0   2007   Lewistown Municipal Airport  
95   1985    59   2004    57   1970    37   2005   0.14   1990    0.0   2007   Dillon Airport  
92   1999    56   1933    59   1919    31   1992   1.31   1905    0.0   2009   Dillon - WMCE  
91   1981    46   1977    56   1970    16   1992   0.82   1977    0.0   2007   West Yellowstone  
91   1981    48   1933    60   1913    26   1992   0.63   1993    5.0   1993   Butte Mooney Airport  
98   1981    56   1954    61   1981    32   1991   0.80   1956    0.0   2010   Kalispell (Glacier Park) Airport  
99   1981    58   1960    60   1913    33   1908   1.07   2004      T   1990   Missoula  
98   1994    62   1987    68   1970    40   1992   0.33   1942      T   1954   Billings International Airport  
95   1999    59   1977    67   1970    34   1992   0.54   1977      T   1993   Livingston  
102   2000    61   1987    74   1955    43   1967   0.31   1977      T   1995   Miles City Airport  
108   1926    57   1982    67   1955    34   1935   0.41   1954    0.0   2010   Glasgow Int'l Airport  
89   1985    54   1977    51   1970    20   1992   0.37   1961    0.0   2009   Big Sky 2 WNW  
92   2008    60   1903    55   1958    27   1992   0.55   1990    0.0   2009   Boulder  
95   2003    49   1933    62   1970    32   1908   0.88   1933    0.0   2009   Bozeman - MSU  
94   1996    53   1977    62   1984    25   1992   1.15   1956    0.0   2009   Cascade 20 SSE  
96   1970    60   1911    59   1981    34   1973   0.63   1954    0.0   2009   Chester  
99   1937    60   1941    66   1970    32   1900   0.79   1963    0.0   2009   Chinook  
106   1894    50   1928    59   1984    36   1949   0.55   1954    0.0   2009   Choteau  
99   1926    48   1928    69   1926    33   1980   0.49   1928    0.0   2009   Conrad  
89   1996    63   1989    58   1984    33   1993   0.23   1951    0.0   2009   Del Bonita  
95   1926    49   1928    58   1926    31   1935   1.80   1931    0.0   2009   Dunkirk 19 NNE  
97   1924    61   1941    58   1929    28   1992   0.72   1991    0.0   2009   Ennis  
100   1966    52   1928    64   1999    37   1993   0.44   1963    0.0   2009   Fort Assinniboine  
99   1884    57   1941    67   1984    37   1960   0.65   1885    0.0   2009   Fort Benton  
97   1937    63   1993    65   1970    33   1914   0.99   1941    0.0   2009   Grass Range  
94   1971    48   1928    66   1913    28   1993   0.86   1954    0.0   2009   Gold Butte 7 N  
101   1996    55   1933    65   1970    31   1935   0.80   1963    0.0   2008   Harlem 4 W  
94   1988    57   2004    52   1961    26   1960   0.47   1956    0.0   2009   Lincoln Ranger Station  
95   2008    63   2004    55   1955    28   1992   0.88   1977    0.0   2009   Martinsdale 3 NNW  
88   2008    56   1993    48   1988    28   1992   0.30   1993    0.0   2009   Millegan 14 SE  
91   1996    61   2004    53   1999    31   1992   0.70   1995    0.0   2009   Neihart 7 NW  
93   2003    56   1990    63   1967    29   1992   0.35   1989    0.0   2009   Rogers Pass 9 NNE  
94   2001    66   2004    66   1999    36   1980   0.42   1963    0.0   2009   Shelby  
96   2003    59   1954    60   1981    32   1967   0.41   1954    0.0   2009   Simpson 6 NW  
95   2003    53   1933    64   1984    32   1967   1.17   1954    0.0   2009   Stanford  
97   1981    61   1993    59   1988    30   1992   0.45   1965    0.0   2009   Townsend  
99   2008    65   2004    57   2002    36   1993   0.30   2004    0.0   2009   Turner 11 N  
103   2008    59   1993    59   1999    33   1992   0.45   1993    0.0   2009   Valentine  
93   1926    55   1941    65   1958    36   1980   0.96   1928    0.0   2009   Valier  
91   2003    46   1933    58   1917    29   1992   0.60   1933      T   1954   Virginia City  
95   1924    56   2004    59   1929    31   1992   0.63   1941    0.0   2009   White Sulphur Springs  
91   1981    53   1933    46   1966    15   1914   0.33   1993    0.0   2009   Wisdom  

Unseasonably Cool Weather Expected Tonight

Plan for some chilly lows tonight, as many of us will be in the 30's for our morning temperatures on Tuesday. The latest weather data this morning suggests clearing skies, combined with the already cool afternoon highs today to bring many of us down to near freezing.

Higher elevations will possibly get into the 20's, while cities (like downtown Bozeman) will remain a little warmer pushing near 40 for the overnight low. If you are not downtown any city, you will most likely be in the 30's, with a few places pushing that ever scary "freezing" number.

If you are scared summer is over, don't worry too much, we will warm back up by Tuesday afternoon we are back to near normal temperatures, and those overnight lows are also on the slightly milder side as well.

NOAA: Past Decade Warmest on Record According to Scientists in 48 Countries

Earth has been growing warmer for more than fifty years

State of the Climate in 2009: Report Cover.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

The 2009 State of the Climate report released today draws on data for 10 key climate indicators that all point to the same finding: the scientific evidence that our world is warming is unmistakable. More than 300 scientists from 160 research groups in 48 countries contributed to the report, which confirms that the past decade was the warmest on record and that the Earth has been growing warmer over the last 50 years.

Based on comprehensive data from multiple sources, the report defines 10 measurable planet-wide features used to gauge global temperature changes. The relative movement of each of these indicators proves consistent with a warming world. Seven indicators are rising: air temperature over land, sea-surface temperature, air temperature over oceans, sea level, ocean heat, humidity and tropospheric temperature in the “active-weather” layer of the atmosphere closest to the Earth’s surface. Three indicators are declining: Arctic sea ice, glaciers and spring snow cover in the Northern hemisphere.

“For the first time, and in a single compelling comparison, the analysis brings together multiple observational records from the top of the atmosphere to the depths of the ocean,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “The records come from many institutions worldwide. They use data collected from diverse sources, including satellites, weather balloons, weather stations, ships, buoys and field surveys. These independently produced lines of evidence all point to the same conclusion: our planet is warming,”

Ten Indicators of a Warming World.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

The report emphasizes that human society has developed for thousands of years under one climatic state, and now a new set of climatic conditions are taking shape. These conditions are consistently warmer, and some areas are likely to see more extreme events like severe drought, torrential rain and violent storms.

“Despite the variability caused by short-term changes, the analysis conducted for this report illustrates why we are so confident the world is warming,” said Peter Stott, Ph.D., contributor to the report and head of Climate Monitoring and Attribution of the United Kingdom Met Office Hadley Centre. “When we look at air temperature and other indicators of climate, we see highs and lows in the data from year to year because of natural variability. Understanding climate change requires looking at the longer-term record. When we follow decade-to-decade trends using multiple data sets and independent analyses from around the world, we see clear and unmistakable signs of a warming world.”

While year-to-year changes in temperature often reflect natural climatic variations such as El Niño/La Niña events, changes in average temperature from decade-to-decade reveal long-term trends such as global warming. Each of the last three decades has been much warmer than the decade before. At the time, the 1980s was the hottest decade on record. In the 1990s, every year was warmer than the average of the previous decade. The 2000s were warmer still.

“The temperature increase of one degree Fahrenheit over the past 50 years may seem small, but it has already altered our planet,” said Deke Arndt, co-editor of the report and chief of the Climate Monitoring Branch of NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center. “Glaciers and sea ice are melting, heavy rainfall is intensifying and heat waves are more common. And, as the new report tells us, there is now evidence that over 90 percent of warming over the past 50 years has gone into our ocean.”

More and more, Americans are witnessing the impacts of climate change in their own backyards, including sea-level rise, longer growing seasons, changes in river flows, increases in heavy downpours, earlier snowmelt and extended ice-free seasons in our waters. People are searching for relevant and timely information about these changes to inform decision-making about virtually all aspects of their lives. To help keep citizens and businesses informed about climate, NOAA created the Climate Portal at http://www.climate.gov. The portal features a short video that summarizes some of the highlights of the State of the Climate Report.

State of the Climate is published as a special supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society and is edited by D.S. Arndt, M.O. Baringer, and M.R. Johnson. The full report and an online media packet with graphics is available online: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Visit us on Facebook.

Southwest Montana: Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Today

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has us under the gun for a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon.

What this means is that there is a 10% that any storms that do develop this afternoon could be severe, generating damaging winds and possible large hail.

Though the threat is fairly minimal, it is something to bear in mind as you head out the door this morning, because you do not want to be caught in any storms unprepared.

The best timing for these thunderstorms to develop will be between about 2 and 8 pm this afternoon and evening. Once the sun sets, the energy these storms need to develop should diminish with our sunlight.

Wednesday carries another threat for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, then a gradual drying trend looks like it will move into the area. The dry weather will come in, though, at the expense of the warmer temperatures. The mercury will drop down below the seasonal levels by late this week, before rebounding to near normal levels by next week.

NOAA Issues Mid-Season Update on Atlantic Hurricane Season

Image to the left is courtesy NOAA.

The Atlantic Basin remains on track for an active hurricane season, according to the scheduled seasonal outlook update issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. With the season’s peak just around the corner – late August through October – the need for preparedness plans is essential.

NOAA also announced earlier this month that, as predicted last spring, La Niña has formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This favors lower wind shear over the Atlantic Basin, allowing storm clouds to grow and organize. Other climate factors pointing to an active hurricane season are warmer-than-average water in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, and the tropical multi-decadal signal, which since 1995 has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in unison, leading to more active seasons.

“August heralds the start of the most active phase of the Atlantic hurricane season and with the meteorological factors in place, now is the time for everyone living in hurricane prone areas to be prepared,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the whole season – June 1 to November 30 – NOAA’s updated outlook is projecting, with a 70 percent probability, a total of (including Alex, Bonnie and Colin):

• 14 to 20 Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
• 8 to 12 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
• 4 to 6 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

These ranges are still indicative of an active season, compared to the average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes; however, the upper bounds of the ranges have been lowered from the initial outlook in late May, which reflected the possibility of even more early season activity.

“All indications are for considerable activity during the next several months,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “As we’ve seen in past years, storms can come on quickly during the peak months of the season. There remains a high likelihood that the season could be very active, with the potential of being one of the more active on record.”

Be prepared for the hurricane season with important information available online at hurricanes.gov/prepare and at FEMA’s ready.gov.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Visit us on Facebook.

Strong Storms Possible Friday

The National Weather Service is watching for the potential of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. The continued unstable afternoons, combined with the warmer late day temperatures will increase our threat from about 2 to 10 pm Friday.

The main threat with these storms will be strong gusty winds, and possible large damaging hail. The best threat for severe storms will be mainly to the north, but the Bozeman area is included.

In the short term, Today is looking a little wet, especially for the southern part of southwest Montana with clouds and showers already present, and they will continue into the evening hours. Today the main threat will be moderate rain, along with gusty winds. I will keep an eye on the storms as they progress and will let you know if we have any severe thunderstorms out there, both today and Friday!

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Through Saturday Evening

The National Weather Service has issued a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH until 8pm this evevning. Strong storms have already developed and will continue to do so through the evening hours before dissipating during the overnight hours. I may have the day off, but I am with Jeff Womack tracking the storms, and he will break in with any severe thunderstorms warnings. The main threat today is the likliehood of strong damaging winds, along with large hail. There is even a minor threat for isolated tornadoes as well! Please plan now for these strong storms!

June 30 Storms Caused More than Just Hail Damage

Here is an email from a local viewer, talking about the impacts to the forest from the June 30 storms:

I am the west zone trails supervisor for the Gallatin NF, and these are some photos from our attempts to reopen several trails in the Spanish Peaks this last week.

The microburst that hit these occurred just after the big June 30th hail storm, and it must have been a whopper. If you have any info on wind speeds, or anything related to this event, from the NWS I would be very interested to know what went on up there. These photos show a glimpse of what is several thousand acres that were blown down in that area, and the 401 trail from Spanish Creek to Ennis Lake is still not open and completely impassable from the Cherry Crk. ford going west.

We did manage to open the 408, and we opened 401 west of the 408 junction. I thought you all might enjoy seeing nature's handiwork, as I follow the Heard blog fairly often, and I see user pics in there occasionally.

Two Dead after Severe Weather Hits Northeast Montana

Severe weather hit northeast Montana with a bang yesterday. There were several severe weather reports across the northeast corner of the state, specifically across Daniels & Sheridan Counties.

According to the Associated Press, the Sheridan County Coroner has confirmed that two people were killed in a tornado that struck west of Reserve Monday evening. One other person was injured, but no details on their injuries have been released.

This gives me a chance to reiterate the importance of being safe in severe weather, and have a plan for any type of severe weather, knowing where to go, what to do, and how to meet up with family members in the event you get separated.

Below you will find the storm reports for Monday issued from the Glasgow National Weather Service Office:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
510 AM MDT TUE JUL 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TORNADO          SW SCOBEY               48.79N 105.42W
07/26/2010                   DANIELS            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO TOUCH DOWN HALF MILE NORTH OF SCOBEY BREIFLY.
            FUNNEL CLOUD OBSERVED FOR SEVERAL MINUTES BEFORE TOUCH
            DOWN.

0635 PM     TORNADO          11 WNW MEDICINE LAKE    48.58N 104.70W
07/26/2010                   SHERIDAN           MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TORNADO ON THE GROUND WITH A DEBRIS CLOUD ABOUT 4
            MILES TO THE WEST.

0647 PM     HAIL             NW NAVAJO               48.79N 105.06W
07/26/2010  E1.00 INCH       DANIELS            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE AND SMALLER HAIL.

0655 PM     HAIL             NW NAVAJO               48.79N 105.06W
07/26/2010  M3.00 INCH       DANIELS            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL COVERED THE GROUND AT 650 PM. THREE
            INCH HAIL OCCURRED AT 655 PM. TOTAL RAINFALL OF 0.88.

0720 PM     TORNADO          W RESERVE               48.61N 104.46W
07/26/2010                   SHERIDAN           MT   PUBLIC         

            SHERIDAN COUNTY DISPATCH CALLED WITH A REPORT OF A
            TORNADO ON THE GROUND WEST OF RESERVE. THIS REPORT WAS
            RELAYED THROUGH SHERIDAN DISPATCH.

0721 PM     TORNADO          W RESERVE               48.61N 104.46W
07/26/2010                   SHERIDAN           MT   PUBLIC         

            PUBLIC REPORT OF TORNADO ON THE GROUND TO THE WEST OF
            RESERVE.

0735 PM     TORNADO          9 W RESERVE             48.61N 104.66W
07/26/2010                   SHERIDAN           MT   EMERGENCY MNGR 

            *** 2 FATAL, 1 INJ *** TWO FATALITIES AND ONE INJURY FROM
            A TORNADO...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONDUCTING STORM
            SUREY FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

0800 PM     HAIL             7 SE RESERVE            48.54N 104.35W
07/26/2010  E0.75 INCH       SHERIDAN           MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN.

0800 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 ESE MEDICINE LAKE     48.46N 104.31W
07/26/2010  E70.00 MPH       SHERIDAN           MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONE INCH HAIL ALSO FELL. NO DAMAGE REPORTED SO FAR.

New Tropical Depression in Caribbean

The National Hurricane Center is Following a new storm that has developed over the northern Caribbean. The latest track of this storm has it going in the central Gulf by late Friday into the weekend.

The storm currently known as Tropical Depression #3 is carrying winds of 35 mph. Once the storm reaches 39 mph, it will become Tropical Storm Bonnie, the second named storm of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

The latest data suggests that this storm will in all likelihood become Bonnie by late tonight or early tomorrow morning.

The track of TD3 will take the storm through the central gulf and toward the Gulf Coast near central Louisiana. If the current forecast holds true, TD3 will become Tropical Storm Bonnie and make landfall as a Tropical Storm. The main threat with this storm would be heavy rains, and gusty winds as the storm makes landfall during the day on Sunday.

I will continue to follow this storm, along with any others that develop.

New Report Shows Potential Water Shortages by Mid-Century

Interesting report released about the threat for water shortages by mid-century. Below is a recently released report courtesy Tetra Tech & NRDC:

According to a report from Tetra Tech produced for the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), over 1,100 U.S. counties- more than one-third of all counties in the lower 48 states - now face higher risks of water shortages by mid-century as the result of global warming. More than 400 of these counties will be at extremely high risk for water shortages, based on estimates in the new report.

The report uses publicly available water use data across the United States and climate projections from a set of models used in recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) work to evaluate withdrawals related to renewable water supply. The report finds that 14 states face an extreme or high risk to water sustainability, or are likely to see limitations on water availability as demand exceeds supply by 2050. These areas include parts of Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Idaho, Kansas, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. In particular, in the Great Plains and Southwest United States, water sustainability is at extreme risk.

The more than 400 counties identified as being at greatest risk in the report reflects a 14-times increase from previous estimates. For a look at county- and state-specific maps detailing the report findings (including a Google Earth map), go to http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/watersustainability/ and http://rd.tetratech.com/climatechange/projects/nrdc_climate.asp.

While detailed modeling of climate change impacts on crop production was beyond the scope of the Tetra Tech analysis, the potential scale of disruption is reflected based on the value of the crops produced in the 1,100 at-risk counties. In 2007, the value of the crops produced in the at-risk counties identified in the report exceeded $105 billion. A separate study compared the Tetra Tech data with county-level crop production data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture; state-specific fact sheets outlining the potential agricultural impacts may be found at http://agcarbonmarkets.com/Science.htm.

Dan Lashof, director, Climate Center, Natural Resources Defense Council, said: "This analysis shows climate change will take a serious toll on water supplies throughout the country in the coming decades, with over one out of three U.S. counties facing greater risks of water shortages. Water shortages can strangle economic development and agricultural production and affected communities. As a result, cities and states will bear real and significant costs if Congress fails to take the steps necessary to slow down and reverse the warming trend. Water management and climate change adaptation plans will be essential to lessen the impacts, but they cannot be expected to counter the effects of a warming climate. The only way to truly manage the risks exposed by this report is for Congress to pass meaningful legislation that cuts global warming pollution and allows the U.S. to exercise global leadership on the issue."

Sujoy Roy, principal engineer and lead report author, Tetra Tech, said: "The goal of the analysis is to identify regions where potential stresses, and the need to do something about them, may be the greatest. We used publicly available data on current water withdrawals for different sectors of the economy, such as irrigation, cooling for power generation, and municipal supply, and estimated future demands using business-as-usual scenarios of growth. We then compared these future withdrawals to a measure of renewable water supply in 2050, based on a set of 16 global climate model projections of temperature and precipitation, to identify regions that may be stressed by water availability. These future stresses are related to changes in precipitation as well as the likelihood of increased demand in some regions."

Water withdrawal will grow by 25 percent in many areas of the U.S. including the arid Arizona/New Mexico area, the populated areas in the South Atlantic region, Florida, the Mississippi River basin, and Washington DC and surrounding regions.

Estimated water withdrawal as a percentage of available precipitation is generally less than 5 percent for the majority of the Eastern United States, and less than 30 percent for the majority of the Western United States. But in some arid regions (such as Texas, the Southwest, and California) and agricultural areas, water withdrawal is greater than 100 percent of the available precipitation. In other words, in many places, water is already used in quantities that exceed supply.

The graphic to the left depicts the August forecast for the U.S. with respect to temperatures. Any areas in orange indicate an increased chance of being above what is typical during the month.

You can tell that much of the western U.S. looks to run much above average including all of Montana. What this means is that our August outlook appears to be unseasonably warm.

Most of the country actually will run warm during August, which for many of us who experienced that cool spring, is a much welcomed sight. The far western part of the country, along with the southern mid-west and south central U.S. will have an equal chance of being warmer or cooler than normal, in other words, expect a seasonal August.

When it comes to precipitation, the outlook is a little different. The graphic to the right shows the chances of precipitation compared to what we normally expect during August. Though August is a relatively dry month for our area to begin with, the outlook has us drier than seasonal. This means that our August precipitation is expected to be below the already low numbers.









What does this mean for southwest Montana? The latest outlook has us warmer than normal, and drier than normal for the Month of August. After our cool and wet spring, this could increase our fire danger as we head later into the season. Any fuels that had extra moisture to grow during the spring will quickly dry out under the warm and dry conditions, increasing the fuels for forest fires. Though this forecast is just a preliminary outlook, it does give us an idea of what we can expect as we head later into the summer months.

I am currently working on a more detailed outlook, not only for August, but for the next 3 months, I will have that as soon as I have a chance to fully analyze the data!

Warm weather moving in...possible increased fire danger?

We are looking to have some nice warm temperatures move in, over the coming days. High pressure will move across our area today and tomorrow with many of us running 10-15 degrees warmer than seasonal levels tomorrow afternoon. Though we will unseasonably warm, we will not be anywhere near record highs for the date. To show you comparison, here are some forecast highs tomorrow (Friday) and the corresponding record highs and years.

City Forecast Record Record
High High Year

Bozeman 94 103 2007

Butte 87 98 1936

Helena 93 100 2007

Dillon 88 94 2005

Livingston 95 101 2007

Anaconda 85 95 2004

Ennis 92 97 2007

So warm yes, but not record warm for our area, as many of us have records reaching into the 100's for Friday. A slight cool down is expected during the weekend into early next week, but sunshine will still be dominant and dry weather will also prevail.

These warm and dry conditions could increase our fire danger, as we are already in the 2010 wildfire season across the inter-mountain west. One fire burning north of Helena has grown to more than 300 acres, and was only 10 percent contained as of last night.

Further to the south, there is a much larger fire burning near the Idaho Nuclear Lab facility in the central part of the state. The latest numbers from late last night was that the fire has burned 109,000 acres, roughly 170 square miles. That's equal to about 7-9% of either Gallatin or Silver Bow Counties, so a fairly large area.

With southwesterly winds, and this fire to our southwest, we may get some smoke from this fire to drift into our area by as early as this weekend into early next week. The latest numbers on containment was that the fire was 60% contained.

How long will the sun last?

Sunny skies remain in abundance for the next several days as high pressure really gets ahold of not only our area, but the entire Pacific Northwest! Tuesday and Wednesday we will be slightly cool, with a strong west to northwesterly flow bringing temperatures down from what we saw yesterday.

Highs will still be comfortable today with 70's for much of the area, though the mountains could remain only in the 60's. Good news is that this cooler weather trend will be short lived as we get back into the 80's and 90's by the end of the work week!

Beyond the next 7 days, we are still looking to stay warm and dry, with very little threat for any wet weather over the coming days. Highs will stay above normal too, so get out and enjoy the summer while it lasts!

Beautiful Weather Pattern Setting In! A little windy though today...

Locations west of the divide could see 30-50 mph winds today as a cold front approaches the area. This front, though it will increase our winds today, should not bring any precipitation.

The other impact of this front will be a brief but fairly strong cool down of about 10 to 15 degrees from our Monday highs. This cool down will last through your Tuesday and Wednesday before the full brunt of the high clears things out and we begin to see the warm part of our summer here in southwest Montana.

Highs by the end of the week will be pushing near 90 east of the divide, while west, expect temperatures well into the 80's for several days in a row.

Looking into the longer term, beyond the 7-day forecast, the weather pattern still looks to hold. If all goes well, we could go perhaps up to two weeks with dry and sunny weather and temperatures near or above the seasonal levels! I will keep an eye on that extended forecast, but it appears that now is the time to enjoy the great summer weather outside!

This Week's Weather Looking Good!

I just got back from vacation earlier this afternoon where the weather in Oregon was picture perfect. It might have been a little hot for a few with temperatures soaring into the 90's to near 100 the last couple days I was there.

As I switch gears to look at our weather pattern here in Montana, we are setting up nicely for some mild and sunny weather. I will have a more detailed look in the coming hours and will have a complete look at the forecast tomorrow morning on Montana This Morning with Lindsay Clein. For now sit back, relax and look forward to a beautiful weather week!

Alex now a Hurricane!

The title says it all. Alex has now become the first hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season. He is currently packing winds of 80 mph, placing him in the category 1 of the Saffir-Simpson scale.

His current movement is West-Northwest and this movement is expected to continue. Some further strengthening into a possible category 2 storm (96-110 mph) is possible before making landfall late tonight into Thursday morning.

Heavy rains will accompany the winds with this storm. Alex is also increasing the waves in the Gulf, slowing cleanup efforts of the oil spill too.

By Friday, Alex should weaken into a depression over Mexico before catching the westerlies and bringing rain into Texas and eventually the eastern seaboard. Let's hope Alex is one of just a few hurricanes we see this season.

Storm damage and severe weather reports from Tuesday

Several locations west of the divide were under the gun yesterday with strong and severe thunderstorms. The map to the left from the Storm Prediction Center shows the reports from across the country.




In Montana specifically, there were 3 hail reports, ranging from 1 to 1.5 inches in diameter, all of which were reported in Missoula County. The majority of the storm reports were in the form of wind, with a total of 10 wind reports ranging from an estimated 60 to 88 miles per hour. The image to the right is courtesy our sister station KPAX in Missoula. This was one of many lightning strikes that struck much of western Montana yesterday.

The latest data this morning is suggesting that these storm reports will likely spread further to the east today, into central and southwest Montana, as we are under the gun again for some strong to possibly severe thunderstorms this afternoon.

The main threat for any severe storms today across our area will once again be mainly strong damaging winds and large hail. The best chance for these storms will be in the late afternoon into the evening hours. The best dynamics will be east of the divide.

Tomorrow will also have a chance for more severe thunderstorms, but today is the best chance for our area, as this front slowly moves eastward over the coming days. Mike and I will keep an eye on the sky for you over the next few days, but be aware we are under the gun for plenty of showers and storms today tomorrow and possibly even into Friday.

Severe weather threat still looks good!

As you wake up this morning, temperatures might be a little warmer than expected. That's because clouds have rolled in overnight. The fact that none of our computer models picked up on these clouds indicates to me that we could see more showers and storms than originally expected. With regards to the severity, I think we still have just about a 15% chance of any storms that develop today and tomorrow becoming severe.

The National Weather Service in Missoula has issued the image to the right, as part of their weather story today. Watch out for these strong to severe storms. The more sunshine that we see today, the potentially stronger the storms could be this afternoon. All of us are under the gun for wet weather today and tomorrow.

Watch out for Severe Thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday!

The Great Falls National Weather Service is currently watching the potential for some severe weather across most of central and southwest Montana Tuesday and Wednesday.

The biggest threat with these storms would be strong winds and large hail. The current weather forecast data is suggesting the best chance for these storms will be on Wednesday, but the threat is still there on Tuesday as well.

The image to the left is courtesy the Great Falls National Weather Service.

The Storm Prediction Center has us under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. This means that there is a 15% chance that any thunderstorms that do develop could turn severe.

The top image on the right is for Tuesday, while the bottom image is for Wednesday.

Mike and I will continue to monitor this threat for severe weather over the coming days, but pay close attention to the weather that's going on around you particularly tomorrow and Wednesday afternoon.

Warmest day of 2010 today, thunderstorms, possibly severe return later this week

Sunshine is what you will wake up to this morning with nice warm temperatures expected this afternoon. For all of us, my forecast highs this afternoon are the warmest highs of 2010. Enjoy this warm weather while it lasts.

As we head into the afternoon hours Tuesday and particularly Wednesday, there is the threat for some strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. The data that I had a chance to get an in depth look at this morning has a strong possibility of severe storms, especially Wednesday afternoon. The main threat for any of these storms would be strong winds and large damaging hail.

Mike and I will continue to monitor this severe weather threat, and keep an eye in the near future for your 4th of July holiday forecast, which looks to be partly cloudy and seasonal so far!

Possible Severe storms for Tuesday?

The Storm Prediction center is already keeping an eye out in the Northern Rockies for potential severe thunderstorms that could move in late on Tuesday. Looking at the latest data on Sunday night, there seems to be a decent setup in terms of dynamics.

With the warm weather we have seen the past couple days including tomorrow and Tuesday as well, this will help give a spark to an atmosphere that is full of fuel ready to blow. The main threat with these storms appears to be strong winds and possible large hail. More details about this severe weather threat as it becomes available in the coming days. Though we are still a couple days away, this is something to keep an eye on as you plan your week ahead.

A much more unsettled week lies ahead as there is a chance for those thunderstorms beginning Tuesday continuing through much of the work week. I will have a detailed look, continue to follow this threat for severe weather and keep an eye on your 4th of July forecast and much more every morning at 6am, on Montana This Morning. See you soon!

Tropical Storm Alex, first storm of the season!

Image courtesy of the National Hurricane Center.

NHC has been following what is known as Tropical Storm Alex, however as it moves over the warm gulf waters, it will strengthen to a hurricane before making landfall on the eastern coast of Mexico.

Alex is the first storm of the season, one in which the Hurricane Center is expecting to be busier than average with 14 to 23 named storms, 8 to 14 of which becoming hurricanes and 3 to 7 which could become major, packing winds of 111 mph or more.

This storm should gain enough strength to become a hurricane (74 mph or more) by late Tuesday night. I will keep an eye on the first storm of the season and any others that pop up!

Sunshine and warmer weather returns!

Finally we begin to see warmer conditions move into the area! The latest computers this morning suggest that this nice weather might become more of a pattern change to warmer and drier conditions. Looking into the longer range highs will punch into the 80's and 90's for quite some time. An early look at your 4th of July forecast has partly cloudy skies maybe some late day showers or thunderstorms, but it appears a seasonal or warmer day is expected!

Wet Wednesday and Thursday expected

Watch out for wet weather today as we are expecting more rain, especially tonight into your Thursday. The latest numbers this morning suggest the possibility of up to an inch or more of rain by Thursday. On top of the heavy rains, we could still see more thunderstorms along with hail, so anyone with gardens should cover them just in case. The water will also add to the already high rivers, so we could also have flood advisories out there in the next couple days. Good news! Once we get through the heavy wet weather in the short term drier weather returns, and temperatures rebound as well.

National Hurricane Center releases Tropical Outlook

The National Hurricane Center has released what they are expecting this upcoming hurricane season. Here are the number of storms they are expecting:

• 14 to 23 Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
• 8 to 14 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
• 3 to 7 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

Remember, hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, with a peak in late July and into September. Read the full story by clicking here. We already have an area that the NHC is watching over the central Atlantic, though right now there is only a 30% chance of this area developing into a storm.

Storm Prediction Center puts us under slight risk for severe thunderstorms

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in its daily outlook put us under the "slight risk" category for severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Biggest threat is large hail, but we will still see heavy rains and strong winds too! Find the latest SPC discussion about our area below:

...NRN GREAT BASIN INTO MT...
 
  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
  FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING MIDLEVEL
  TROUGH WILL OCCUR WITHIN POST FRONTAL AIR MASS OF WRN WA/ORE
  EVENTUALLY INTO THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE.  NONETHELESS... REGION WILL
  RESIDE WITHIN THE ERN FRINGE OF STRONGER FORCING WHERE STEEP LAPSE
  RATES AND PW VALUES OF 0.50-0.75 INCH WILL YIELD POCKETS OF MODERATE
  INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.
 
  MESOSCALE AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT TSTMS
  SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT.  THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
  COUPLED WITH DEEP SWLY SHEAR STRENGTHENING TO 45-55 KT WILL BE
  SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY
  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

Today's Forecast

Watch out for late day showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be severe, with large hail, strong winds, and heavy rains. More of the same expected for tomorrow, but there is some good news as we head into next week with warmer and drier conditions!

Welcome to My Blog

Hello All! Sorry it took me so long to start up my blog, but here it is. Check back here often, I will try to update you on the weather in Southwest Montana, along with some fun videos and other links!