Severe Thunderstorm Watch Through Saturday Evening

The National Weather Service has issued a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH until 8pm this evevning. Strong storms have already developed and will continue to do so through the evening hours before dissipating during the overnight hours. I may have the day off, but I am with Jeff Womack tracking the storms, and he will break in with any severe thunderstorms warnings. The main threat today is the likliehood of strong damaging winds, along with large hail. There is even a minor threat for isolated tornadoes as well! Please plan now for these strong storms!

June 30 Storms Caused More than Just Hail Damage

Here is an email from a local viewer, talking about the impacts to the forest from the June 30 storms:

I am the west zone trails supervisor for the Gallatin NF, and these are some photos from our attempts to reopen several trails in the Spanish Peaks this last week.

The microburst that hit these occurred just after the big June 30th hail storm, and it must have been a whopper. If you have any info on wind speeds, or anything related to this event, from the NWS I would be very interested to know what went on up there. These photos show a glimpse of what is several thousand acres that were blown down in that area, and the 401 trail from Spanish Creek to Ennis Lake is still not open and completely impassable from the Cherry Crk. ford going west.

We did manage to open the 408, and we opened 401 west of the 408 junction. I thought you all might enjoy seeing nature's handiwork, as I follow the Heard blog fairly often, and I see user pics in there occasionally.

Two Dead after Severe Weather Hits Northeast Montana

Severe weather hit northeast Montana with a bang yesterday. There were several severe weather reports across the northeast corner of the state, specifically across Daniels & Sheridan Counties.

According to the Associated Press, the Sheridan County Coroner has confirmed that two people were killed in a tornado that struck west of Reserve Monday evening. One other person was injured, but no details on their injuries have been released.

This gives me a chance to reiterate the importance of being safe in severe weather, and have a plan for any type of severe weather, knowing where to go, what to do, and how to meet up with family members in the event you get separated.

Below you will find the storm reports for Monday issued from the Glasgow National Weather Service Office:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
510 AM MDT TUE JUL 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TORNADO          SW SCOBEY               48.79N 105.42W
07/26/2010                   DANIELS            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO TOUCH DOWN HALF MILE NORTH OF SCOBEY BREIFLY.
            FUNNEL CLOUD OBSERVED FOR SEVERAL MINUTES BEFORE TOUCH
            DOWN.

0635 PM     TORNADO          11 WNW MEDICINE LAKE    48.58N 104.70W
07/26/2010                   SHERIDAN           MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TORNADO ON THE GROUND WITH A DEBRIS CLOUD ABOUT 4
            MILES TO THE WEST.

0647 PM     HAIL             NW NAVAJO               48.79N 105.06W
07/26/2010  E1.00 INCH       DANIELS            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE AND SMALLER HAIL.

0655 PM     HAIL             NW NAVAJO               48.79N 105.06W
07/26/2010  M3.00 INCH       DANIELS            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL COVERED THE GROUND AT 650 PM. THREE
            INCH HAIL OCCURRED AT 655 PM. TOTAL RAINFALL OF 0.88.

0720 PM     TORNADO          W RESERVE               48.61N 104.46W
07/26/2010                   SHERIDAN           MT   PUBLIC         

            SHERIDAN COUNTY DISPATCH CALLED WITH A REPORT OF A
            TORNADO ON THE GROUND WEST OF RESERVE. THIS REPORT WAS
            RELAYED THROUGH SHERIDAN DISPATCH.

0721 PM     TORNADO          W RESERVE               48.61N 104.46W
07/26/2010                   SHERIDAN           MT   PUBLIC         

            PUBLIC REPORT OF TORNADO ON THE GROUND TO THE WEST OF
            RESERVE.

0735 PM     TORNADO          9 W RESERVE             48.61N 104.66W
07/26/2010                   SHERIDAN           MT   EMERGENCY MNGR 

            *** 2 FATAL, 1 INJ *** TWO FATALITIES AND ONE INJURY FROM
            A TORNADO...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONDUCTING STORM
            SUREY FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

0800 PM     HAIL             7 SE RESERVE            48.54N 104.35W
07/26/2010  E0.75 INCH       SHERIDAN           MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN.

0800 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 ESE MEDICINE LAKE     48.46N 104.31W
07/26/2010  E70.00 MPH       SHERIDAN           MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONE INCH HAIL ALSO FELL. NO DAMAGE REPORTED SO FAR.

New Tropical Depression in Caribbean

The National Hurricane Center is Following a new storm that has developed over the northern Caribbean. The latest track of this storm has it going in the central Gulf by late Friday into the weekend.

The storm currently known as Tropical Depression #3 is carrying winds of 35 mph. Once the storm reaches 39 mph, it will become Tropical Storm Bonnie, the second named storm of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

The latest data suggests that this storm will in all likelihood become Bonnie by late tonight or early tomorrow morning.

The track of TD3 will take the storm through the central gulf and toward the Gulf Coast near central Louisiana. If the current forecast holds true, TD3 will become Tropical Storm Bonnie and make landfall as a Tropical Storm. The main threat with this storm would be heavy rains, and gusty winds as the storm makes landfall during the day on Sunday.

I will continue to follow this storm, along with any others that develop.

New Report Shows Potential Water Shortages by Mid-Century

Interesting report released about the threat for water shortages by mid-century. Below is a recently released report courtesy Tetra Tech & NRDC:

According to a report from Tetra Tech produced for the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), over 1,100 U.S. counties- more than one-third of all counties in the lower 48 states - now face higher risks of water shortages by mid-century as the result of global warming. More than 400 of these counties will be at extremely high risk for water shortages, based on estimates in the new report.

The report uses publicly available water use data across the United States and climate projections from a set of models used in recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) work to evaluate withdrawals related to renewable water supply. The report finds that 14 states face an extreme or high risk to water sustainability, or are likely to see limitations on water availability as demand exceeds supply by 2050. These areas include parts of Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Idaho, Kansas, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. In particular, in the Great Plains and Southwest United States, water sustainability is at extreme risk.

The more than 400 counties identified as being at greatest risk in the report reflects a 14-times increase from previous estimates. For a look at county- and state-specific maps detailing the report findings (including a Google Earth map), go to http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/watersustainability/ and http://rd.tetratech.com/climatechange/projects/nrdc_climate.asp.

While detailed modeling of climate change impacts on crop production was beyond the scope of the Tetra Tech analysis, the potential scale of disruption is reflected based on the value of the crops produced in the 1,100 at-risk counties. In 2007, the value of the crops produced in the at-risk counties identified in the report exceeded $105 billion. A separate study compared the Tetra Tech data with county-level crop production data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture; state-specific fact sheets outlining the potential agricultural impacts may be found at http://agcarbonmarkets.com/Science.htm.

Dan Lashof, director, Climate Center, Natural Resources Defense Council, said: "This analysis shows climate change will take a serious toll on water supplies throughout the country in the coming decades, with over one out of three U.S. counties facing greater risks of water shortages. Water shortages can strangle economic development and agricultural production and affected communities. As a result, cities and states will bear real and significant costs if Congress fails to take the steps necessary to slow down and reverse the warming trend. Water management and climate change adaptation plans will be essential to lessen the impacts, but they cannot be expected to counter the effects of a warming climate. The only way to truly manage the risks exposed by this report is for Congress to pass meaningful legislation that cuts global warming pollution and allows the U.S. to exercise global leadership on the issue."

Sujoy Roy, principal engineer and lead report author, Tetra Tech, said: "The goal of the analysis is to identify regions where potential stresses, and the need to do something about them, may be the greatest. We used publicly available data on current water withdrawals for different sectors of the economy, such as irrigation, cooling for power generation, and municipal supply, and estimated future demands using business-as-usual scenarios of growth. We then compared these future withdrawals to a measure of renewable water supply in 2050, based on a set of 16 global climate model projections of temperature and precipitation, to identify regions that may be stressed by water availability. These future stresses are related to changes in precipitation as well as the likelihood of increased demand in some regions."

Water withdrawal will grow by 25 percent in many areas of the U.S. including the arid Arizona/New Mexico area, the populated areas in the South Atlantic region, Florida, the Mississippi River basin, and Washington DC and surrounding regions.

Estimated water withdrawal as a percentage of available precipitation is generally less than 5 percent for the majority of the Eastern United States, and less than 30 percent for the majority of the Western United States. But in some arid regions (such as Texas, the Southwest, and California) and agricultural areas, water withdrawal is greater than 100 percent of the available precipitation. In other words, in many places, water is already used in quantities that exceed supply.

The graphic to the left depicts the August forecast for the U.S. with respect to temperatures. Any areas in orange indicate an increased chance of being above what is typical during the month.

You can tell that much of the western U.S. looks to run much above average including all of Montana. What this means is that our August outlook appears to be unseasonably warm.

Most of the country actually will run warm during August, which for many of us who experienced that cool spring, is a much welcomed sight. The far western part of the country, along with the southern mid-west and south central U.S. will have an equal chance of being warmer or cooler than normal, in other words, expect a seasonal August.

When it comes to precipitation, the outlook is a little different. The graphic to the right shows the chances of precipitation compared to what we normally expect during August. Though August is a relatively dry month for our area to begin with, the outlook has us drier than seasonal. This means that our August precipitation is expected to be below the already low numbers.









What does this mean for southwest Montana? The latest outlook has us warmer than normal, and drier than normal for the Month of August. After our cool and wet spring, this could increase our fire danger as we head later into the season. Any fuels that had extra moisture to grow during the spring will quickly dry out under the warm and dry conditions, increasing the fuels for forest fires. Though this forecast is just a preliminary outlook, it does give us an idea of what we can expect as we head later into the summer months.

I am currently working on a more detailed outlook, not only for August, but for the next 3 months, I will have that as soon as I have a chance to fully analyze the data!

Warm weather moving in...possible increased fire danger?

We are looking to have some nice warm temperatures move in, over the coming days. High pressure will move across our area today and tomorrow with many of us running 10-15 degrees warmer than seasonal levels tomorrow afternoon. Though we will unseasonably warm, we will not be anywhere near record highs for the date. To show you comparison, here are some forecast highs tomorrow (Friday) and the corresponding record highs and years.

City Forecast Record Record
High High Year

Bozeman 94 103 2007

Butte 87 98 1936

Helena 93 100 2007

Dillon 88 94 2005

Livingston 95 101 2007

Anaconda 85 95 2004

Ennis 92 97 2007

So warm yes, but not record warm for our area, as many of us have records reaching into the 100's for Friday. A slight cool down is expected during the weekend into early next week, but sunshine will still be dominant and dry weather will also prevail.

These warm and dry conditions could increase our fire danger, as we are already in the 2010 wildfire season across the inter-mountain west. One fire burning north of Helena has grown to more than 300 acres, and was only 10 percent contained as of last night.

Further to the south, there is a much larger fire burning near the Idaho Nuclear Lab facility in the central part of the state. The latest numbers from late last night was that the fire has burned 109,000 acres, roughly 170 square miles. That's equal to about 7-9% of either Gallatin or Silver Bow Counties, so a fairly large area.

With southwesterly winds, and this fire to our southwest, we may get some smoke from this fire to drift into our area by as early as this weekend into early next week. The latest numbers on containment was that the fire was 60% contained.

How long will the sun last?

Sunny skies remain in abundance for the next several days as high pressure really gets ahold of not only our area, but the entire Pacific Northwest! Tuesday and Wednesday we will be slightly cool, with a strong west to northwesterly flow bringing temperatures down from what we saw yesterday.

Highs will still be comfortable today with 70's for much of the area, though the mountains could remain only in the 60's. Good news is that this cooler weather trend will be short lived as we get back into the 80's and 90's by the end of the work week!

Beyond the next 7 days, we are still looking to stay warm and dry, with very little threat for any wet weather over the coming days. Highs will stay above normal too, so get out and enjoy the summer while it lasts!

Beautiful Weather Pattern Setting In! A little windy though today...

Locations west of the divide could see 30-50 mph winds today as a cold front approaches the area. This front, though it will increase our winds today, should not bring any precipitation.

The other impact of this front will be a brief but fairly strong cool down of about 10 to 15 degrees from our Monday highs. This cool down will last through your Tuesday and Wednesday before the full brunt of the high clears things out and we begin to see the warm part of our summer here in southwest Montana.

Highs by the end of the week will be pushing near 90 east of the divide, while west, expect temperatures well into the 80's for several days in a row.

Looking into the longer term, beyond the 7-day forecast, the weather pattern still looks to hold. If all goes well, we could go perhaps up to two weeks with dry and sunny weather and temperatures near or above the seasonal levels! I will keep an eye on that extended forecast, but it appears that now is the time to enjoy the great summer weather outside!

This Week's Weather Looking Good!

I just got back from vacation earlier this afternoon where the weather in Oregon was picture perfect. It might have been a little hot for a few with temperatures soaring into the 90's to near 100 the last couple days I was there.

As I switch gears to look at our weather pattern here in Montana, we are setting up nicely for some mild and sunny weather. I will have a more detailed look in the coming hours and will have a complete look at the forecast tomorrow morning on Montana This Morning with Lindsay Clein. For now sit back, relax and look forward to a beautiful weather week!