The graphic to the left depicts the August forecast for the U.S. with respect to temperatures. Any areas in orange indicate an increased chance of being above what is typical during the month.

You can tell that much of the western U.S. looks to run much above average including all of Montana. What this means is that our August outlook appears to be unseasonably warm.

Most of the country actually will run warm during August, which for many of us who experienced that cool spring, is a much welcomed sight. The far western part of the country, along with the southern mid-west and south central U.S. will have an equal chance of being warmer or cooler than normal, in other words, expect a seasonal August.

When it comes to precipitation, the outlook is a little different. The graphic to the right shows the chances of precipitation compared to what we normally expect during August. Though August is a relatively dry month for our area to begin with, the outlook has us drier than seasonal. This means that our August precipitation is expected to be below the already low numbers.









What does this mean for southwest Montana? The latest outlook has us warmer than normal, and drier than normal for the Month of August. After our cool and wet spring, this could increase our fire danger as we head later into the season. Any fuels that had extra moisture to grow during the spring will quickly dry out under the warm and dry conditions, increasing the fuels for forest fires. Though this forecast is just a preliminary outlook, it does give us an idea of what we can expect as we head later into the summer months.

I am currently working on a more detailed outlook, not only for August, but for the next 3 months, I will have that as soon as I have a chance to fully analyze the data!