Alex now a Hurricane!

The title says it all. Alex has now become the first hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season. He is currently packing winds of 80 mph, placing him in the category 1 of the Saffir-Simpson scale.

His current movement is West-Northwest and this movement is expected to continue. Some further strengthening into a possible category 2 storm (96-110 mph) is possible before making landfall late tonight into Thursday morning.

Heavy rains will accompany the winds with this storm. Alex is also increasing the waves in the Gulf, slowing cleanup efforts of the oil spill too.

By Friday, Alex should weaken into a depression over Mexico before catching the westerlies and bringing rain into Texas and eventually the eastern seaboard. Let's hope Alex is one of just a few hurricanes we see this season.

Storm damage and severe weather reports from Tuesday

Several locations west of the divide were under the gun yesterday with strong and severe thunderstorms. The map to the left from the Storm Prediction Center shows the reports from across the country.




In Montana specifically, there were 3 hail reports, ranging from 1 to 1.5 inches in diameter, all of which were reported in Missoula County. The majority of the storm reports were in the form of wind, with a total of 10 wind reports ranging from an estimated 60 to 88 miles per hour. The image to the right is courtesy our sister station KPAX in Missoula. This was one of many lightning strikes that struck much of western Montana yesterday.

The latest data this morning is suggesting that these storm reports will likely spread further to the east today, into central and southwest Montana, as we are under the gun again for some strong to possibly severe thunderstorms this afternoon.

The main threat for any severe storms today across our area will once again be mainly strong damaging winds and large hail. The best chance for these storms will be in the late afternoon into the evening hours. The best dynamics will be east of the divide.

Tomorrow will also have a chance for more severe thunderstorms, but today is the best chance for our area, as this front slowly moves eastward over the coming days. Mike and I will keep an eye on the sky for you over the next few days, but be aware we are under the gun for plenty of showers and storms today tomorrow and possibly even into Friday.

Severe weather threat still looks good!

As you wake up this morning, temperatures might be a little warmer than expected. That's because clouds have rolled in overnight. The fact that none of our computer models picked up on these clouds indicates to me that we could see more showers and storms than originally expected. With regards to the severity, I think we still have just about a 15% chance of any storms that develop today and tomorrow becoming severe.

The National Weather Service in Missoula has issued the image to the right, as part of their weather story today. Watch out for these strong to severe storms. The more sunshine that we see today, the potentially stronger the storms could be this afternoon. All of us are under the gun for wet weather today and tomorrow.

Watch out for Severe Thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday!

The Great Falls National Weather Service is currently watching the potential for some severe weather across most of central and southwest Montana Tuesday and Wednesday.

The biggest threat with these storms would be strong winds and large hail. The current weather forecast data is suggesting the best chance for these storms will be on Wednesday, but the threat is still there on Tuesday as well.

The image to the left is courtesy the Great Falls National Weather Service.

The Storm Prediction Center has us under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. This means that there is a 15% chance that any thunderstorms that do develop could turn severe.

The top image on the right is for Tuesday, while the bottom image is for Wednesday.

Mike and I will continue to monitor this threat for severe weather over the coming days, but pay close attention to the weather that's going on around you particularly tomorrow and Wednesday afternoon.

Warmest day of 2010 today, thunderstorms, possibly severe return later this week

Sunshine is what you will wake up to this morning with nice warm temperatures expected this afternoon. For all of us, my forecast highs this afternoon are the warmest highs of 2010. Enjoy this warm weather while it lasts.

As we head into the afternoon hours Tuesday and particularly Wednesday, there is the threat for some strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. The data that I had a chance to get an in depth look at this morning has a strong possibility of severe storms, especially Wednesday afternoon. The main threat for any of these storms would be strong winds and large damaging hail.

Mike and I will continue to monitor this severe weather threat, and keep an eye in the near future for your 4th of July holiday forecast, which looks to be partly cloudy and seasonal so far!

Possible Severe storms for Tuesday?

The Storm Prediction center is already keeping an eye out in the Northern Rockies for potential severe thunderstorms that could move in late on Tuesday. Looking at the latest data on Sunday night, there seems to be a decent setup in terms of dynamics.

With the warm weather we have seen the past couple days including tomorrow and Tuesday as well, this will help give a spark to an atmosphere that is full of fuel ready to blow. The main threat with these storms appears to be strong winds and possible large hail. More details about this severe weather threat as it becomes available in the coming days. Though we are still a couple days away, this is something to keep an eye on as you plan your week ahead.

A much more unsettled week lies ahead as there is a chance for those thunderstorms beginning Tuesday continuing through much of the work week. I will have a detailed look, continue to follow this threat for severe weather and keep an eye on your 4th of July forecast and much more every morning at 6am, on Montana This Morning. See you soon!

Tropical Storm Alex, first storm of the season!

Image courtesy of the National Hurricane Center.

NHC has been following what is known as Tropical Storm Alex, however as it moves over the warm gulf waters, it will strengthen to a hurricane before making landfall on the eastern coast of Mexico.

Alex is the first storm of the season, one in which the Hurricane Center is expecting to be busier than average with 14 to 23 named storms, 8 to 14 of which becoming hurricanes and 3 to 7 which could become major, packing winds of 111 mph or more.

This storm should gain enough strength to become a hurricane (74 mph or more) by late Tuesday night. I will keep an eye on the first storm of the season and any others that pop up!

Sunshine and warmer weather returns!

Finally we begin to see warmer conditions move into the area! The latest computers this morning suggest that this nice weather might become more of a pattern change to warmer and drier conditions. Looking into the longer range highs will punch into the 80's and 90's for quite some time. An early look at your 4th of July forecast has partly cloudy skies maybe some late day showers or thunderstorms, but it appears a seasonal or warmer day is expected!

Wet Wednesday and Thursday expected

Watch out for wet weather today as we are expecting more rain, especially tonight into your Thursday. The latest numbers this morning suggest the possibility of up to an inch or more of rain by Thursday. On top of the heavy rains, we could still see more thunderstorms along with hail, so anyone with gardens should cover them just in case. The water will also add to the already high rivers, so we could also have flood advisories out there in the next couple days. Good news! Once we get through the heavy wet weather in the short term drier weather returns, and temperatures rebound as well.

National Hurricane Center releases Tropical Outlook

The National Hurricane Center has released what they are expecting this upcoming hurricane season. Here are the number of storms they are expecting:

• 14 to 23 Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
• 8 to 14 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
• 3 to 7 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

Remember, hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, with a peak in late July and into September. Read the full story by clicking here. We already have an area that the NHC is watching over the central Atlantic, though right now there is only a 30% chance of this area developing into a storm.

Storm Prediction Center puts us under slight risk for severe thunderstorms

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in its daily outlook put us under the "slight risk" category for severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Biggest threat is large hail, but we will still see heavy rains and strong winds too! Find the latest SPC discussion about our area below:

...NRN GREAT BASIN INTO MT...
 
  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
  FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING MIDLEVEL
  TROUGH WILL OCCUR WITHIN POST FRONTAL AIR MASS OF WRN WA/ORE
  EVENTUALLY INTO THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE.  NONETHELESS... REGION WILL
  RESIDE WITHIN THE ERN FRINGE OF STRONGER FORCING WHERE STEEP LAPSE
  RATES AND PW VALUES OF 0.50-0.75 INCH WILL YIELD POCKETS OF MODERATE
  INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.
 
  MESOSCALE AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT TSTMS
  SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT.  THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
  COUPLED WITH DEEP SWLY SHEAR STRENGTHENING TO 45-55 KT WILL BE
  SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY
  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

Today's Forecast

Watch out for late day showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be severe, with large hail, strong winds, and heavy rains. More of the same expected for tomorrow, but there is some good news as we head into next week with warmer and drier conditions!

Welcome to My Blog

Hello All! Sorry it took me so long to start up my blog, but here it is. Check back here often, I will try to update you on the weather in Southwest Montana, along with some fun videos and other links!